Anticipating flashpoints with Russia : patterns and drivers / Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak.

• Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Russia's Disputes and Conflicts -- Chapter Three: Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis -- Chapter Four: Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset -- Chapter Five: Additional Drivers of Escalation -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications for the Army -- Appendix A: Russia's Militarized Disputes, 1992-2010 -- Appendix B: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Ukraine Intervention, 2014 -- Appendix C: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Russia-Georgia War, 2008 -- Appendix D: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 -- Appendix E: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Syrian Civil War, 2015-ongoing -- Appendix F: Narratives for Ukrainian and Georgian Disputes -- Appendix G: Coding Justification for PMC Cases.

• "Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Russian involvement in civil conflicts, using both overt and covert means. Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Therefore, the authors of this report sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints with countries in and near the U.S. Army Europe area of responsibility that could entangle the United States and present distinct military challenges to the U.S. Army. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, the authors identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They then leveraged these findings to derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. The authors also examined two additional potential drivers of conflict not captured in historical data--Russia's use of private military contractors and its operations in the information environment--to see whether either might lead to a flashpoint in the future."-- 

Ämnesord

Konflikten i östra Ukraina 2014-  (sao)

Kriget i Georgien 2008  (sao)

Syriska inbördeskriget 2011-  (sao)

Försvarspolitik  (sao)

Russo-Ukrainian War, 2014-  (LCSH)

South Ossetia War, 2008.  (LCSH)

South Ossetia War, 2008  (LCSH)

Military policy  (LCSH)

Ukraine Conflict, 2014-  (LCSH)

Georgien  (sao)

Tadzjikistan  (sao)

Syrien  (sao)

Ryssland  (sao)

Ukraina  (sao)

Abkhazia (Georgia)  -- History -- Uprising, 1992-1993. (LCSH)

Syria  -- History -- Civil War, 2011- (LCSH)

Russia (Federation)  -- Military policy -- Case studies. (LCSH)

Ukraine  -- Foreign relations -- Russia (Federation) (LCSH)

Russia (Federation)  -- Foreign relations -- Ukraine. (LCSH)

Georgia (Republic)  -- Foreign relations -- Russia (Federation) (LCSH)

Russia (Federation)  -- Foreign relations -- Georgia (Republic) (LCSH)

Tajikistan  -- Foreign relations -- Russia (Federation) (LCSH)

Russia (Federation)  -- Foreign relations -- Tajikistan. (LCSH)

Syria  -- Foreign relations -- Russia (Federation) (LCSH)

Russia (Federation)  -- Foreign relations -- Syria. (LCSH)

Klassifikation

UA770 (LCC)

355.033 (DDC)

S (kssb/8 (machine generated))

RAND/RR-A791-1