Leakage Effects from Restrictions in Timber Supply: An Application to Sweden

Robert Lundmark (Författare)

URI https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-112273, URN urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-112273, DOI 10.3390/f16030407

Luleå tekniska universitet Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik, konst och samhälle (Utgivare)

utgivning

Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2025

är del av

Forests

16:3

Bidrag, Onlineresurs

Finns online:

http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-112273

Värdpublikation

ämne

Agricultural and Veterinary sciences, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Forest Science, Lantbruksvetenskap och veterinärmedicin, Jordbruk, skogsbruk och fiske, Skogsvetenskap, Natural Sciences, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, Climate Science, Naturvetenskap, Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap, Klimatvetenskap, Economics, Nationalekonomi, forest sector, harvest leakage, timber supply, climate change, forestry, forest products

Fler detaljer Referera

Sammanfattning

The interest in forests from a climate and biodiversity perspective is increasing. Several scientific scenarios and political narratives suggest that reduced timber harvest may facilitate these perspectives. However, reducing timber harvest in one location might result in an increased harvest elsewhere. A harvest leakage might occur. This study estimates the magnitude of leakage due to potential reductions in timber harvests in Sweden. The leakage is calculated using an empirical estimation model based on market responses. The results indicate that 24–77 percent of the reduced harvest will be offset by an opposing change in other countries, depending on timber assortment and time horizon. Thus, the magnitude of the leakage is case specific, but, in all cases, sizeable. Subsequently, the expected climate benefits of policies may be severely reduced if the leakage is left unaddressed in the policy design.