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Alternative futures for Russia : the presidential elections and beyond / Simon Saradzhyan and Nabi Abdullaev

Saradzhyan, Simon (författare)
European Union. Institute for Security Studies (utgivare)
Alternativt namn: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Alternativt namn: Institute for Security Studies, European Union
Alternativt namn: Institut d'études de sécurité
Alternativt namn: Institut d'études de sécurité, Union Européenne
ISBN 978-92-9198-188-5
Paris : European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2011
Engelska 37 s.
Serie: Occasional paper, 1608-5000; 92
Läs hela texten (Fritt tillgänglig via EUISS)
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Innehållsförteckning Sammanfattning Ämnesord
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  • Summary -- Introduction -- Continuity : structural indicators 2011-2012. Domestic developments -- Security and defence -- Foreign policy -- Potential change : key uncertainties in 2011 -- Alternative futures : Russia's presidential elections 2012. Scenario 1 : Medvedev stays in power -- Scenario 2 : Putin returns to power -- Scenario 3 : President X -- Other scenarios : why not? -- Conclusion.
  • This paper outlines alternative scenarios for Russia's short-term future with a focus on potential outcomes of the March 2012 presidential elections. To construct these scenarios, the paper first identifies key predetermined factors in Russia's domestic and foreign policy domains. The paper then outlines and analyses key factors of uncertainty, which the authors define as events that could be "game changers", having the potential to lead to a significant change in the course of Russia's development over the coming twelve months. The paper then outlines three scenarios, based on three different interpretations of key areas of uncertainty and their interaction with predetermined factors. The paper concludes which scenarios are more probable and which are more favourable for Russia and by extension for its partners, and primarily the European Union. 

Ämnesord

Elections  -- Russia (Federation) -- Forecasting. (LCSH)
Russia (Federation)  -- Politics and government -- Forecasting. (LCSH)
Russia (Federation)  -- Foreign relations -- Forecasting. (LCSH)
Russia  -- foreign policy (sipri)
Russia  -- internal politics (sipri)
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